PROGNOSIS
Intra-hour prediction of solar electricity generation from Photovoltaics based on Big Data analysis


Call
SOLAR-ERA.NET
APCIN 2018
Type
SOLAR-ERA.NET Cofund 1
APCIN 2018
Duration
01/2018 – 03/2021
Overall Budget
316.500 €
Resumen – Summary
El concepto de PROGNOSIS se relaciona con el desarrollo de un modelo dinámico de asimilación de datos para el pronóstico intrahora de la irradiación solar en un área específica teniendo en cuenta la presencia de nubes / aerosoles en el área. El concepto innovador de PROGNOSIS se basa en el hecho de que el modelo no utiliza ningún tipo de dato meteorológico (datos satelitales – baja resolución espacial y temporal) o equipo especializado (por ejemplo, todas las cámaras de cielo, dispositivos de medición de la irradiancia solar – alto coste de inversión). En cambio, las entradas de datos derivarán de las series temporales de la potencia de salida de una densa malla multipunto de paneles fotovoltaicos (PV) conectados a la red.
PROGNOSIS se implementará principalmente en el sector de la energía como un enfoque de gestión operativa para pronósticos precisos dentro de la hora de producción de energía solar a través de un protocolo de comunicación abierto. Además, se puede utilizar como un servicio para administradores de PV a gran escala o agregados, para proporcionarles la información necesaria para predecir su producción de electricidad, información que los operadores del sistema pueden utilizar para la gestión de la capacidad y la programación. En el futuro, podría utilizarse en los sistemas de gestión de la energía de los edificios (BEMS) como una herramienta integrada para pronosticar la producción y la demanda de energía del edificio y en el desarrollo y la gestión posteriores de las microrredes de toda la ciudad.
Proyecto PCI2018-093043, financiado por: FEDER/Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación – Agencia Estatal de Investigación, en el marco de la convocatoria española de Acciones de Programación Conjunta Internacional APCIN 2018 y el programa internacional SOLAR-ERA.NET Cofund 1.
The concept of PROGNOSIS is related to the development of a dynamic data assimilation model for intra-hour forecasting of solar irradiance over a specific area taking into consideration the presence of clouds/aerosols over the area. The innovative concept of PROGNOSIS is based on the fact that the model does not utilise any meteorological data (satellite data – low spatial and temporal resolution) or specialized equipment (i.e. all sky cameras, solar irradiance measuring devices – high capital cost). Instead, the inputs will derive from the time-series of the power output of a dense multipoint grid of grid-connected Photovoltaics (PVs).
PROGNOSIS will be mainly implemented in the energy sector as an operational management approach for precise intra-hour forecasts of solar energy production through an open communication protocol. Additionally, it can be used as a service to large scale or aggregated PV managers, to provide them with the necessary information to predict their electricity production, information that system operators can then use for capacity management and scheduling. In the future, it could be used in Building Energy Management Systems as an integrated tool for forecasting energy production and demand from the building and in the further development and management of city-wide microgrids.
Project PCI2018-093043, funded by: FEDER/Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación – Agencia Estatal de Investigación, within the framework of the Spanish call for International Joint Programming Actions APCIN 2018 and the international SOLAR-ERA.NET Cofund 1 program.

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